The domestic methanol market has shown a steady upward trend in recent weeks, maintaining a stable and positive development trajectory. In East China, the market has experienced a strong rebound, with prices continuing to rise sharply. The mainstream offer price is now between 2,280–2,380 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 60–80 yuan from the previous period. On the supply side, limited transportation capacity and tight Asian methanol supplies have led to lower import volumes, pushing transaction prices higher. As prices climbed, methanol imports from the mainland increased significantly, gradually becoming the dominant source in the market.
The cost of domestic methanol to East China ports has recently reached 2,150–2,250 yuan per ton, marking a notable rise compared to earlier periods. Meanwhile, downstream demand for formaldehyde remains robust, supporting stronger consumption of methanol. Combined with rising input costs and smooth sales, major players have raised their quotations, contributing to the overall price increase. Looking ahead, the supply in Ningbo is expected to remain stable, with prices holding relatively firm. The mainstream canister price is currently 2,300–2,370 yuan, up by 50–70 yuan. In Jiangsu ports, methanol turnover is active, with the mainstream canning price at 2,280–2,330 yuan, also up by 50 yuan.
In South China, the market has remained stable, with gradual price increases driven by growing downstream demand and rising prices in other regions. Local sentiment has become more optimistic. The cost of domestically delivered methanol to South China is now 2,200–2,300 yuan, but the available supply has decreased due to tighter mainland supplies and increased local consumption. With higher prices, outbound shipments have declined slightly. Although inventory levels are not high, some goods are expected to flow into Hong Kong in the coming weeks, keeping the supply-demand balance relatively stable. The current mainstream market price stands at 2,350–2,400 yuan, with the lower end up by 20 yuan.
In Central China, prices have risen steadily, with Hunan seeing a price increase due to reduced start-ups and higher shipments. In Henan, supply has been relatively stable, but downstream purchasing intentions have not significantly increased, leading to a more neutral pricing trend. In northern Henan, the ex-factory price is 1,920–2,000 yuan, flat. In western Henan, plant operations have declined slightly, with the ex-factory price at 1,910–1,940 yuan, up by 10 yuan. In southern Henan, the ex-factory price is 2,000–2,020 yuan, unchanged. In Hunan, prices have risen as shipments to East China have increased, and operating rates have dropped. The manufacturer's mainstream price has gone up by 50 yuan to 2,100–2,200 yuan. In Hubei, the factory price remains stable at 2,000–2,100 yuan, with high-end quotes holding steady at 2,400 yuan. In Jiangxi, methanol plant operations are not yet fully ramped up, with the ex-factory price at 2,220–2,250 yuan, up by 20–30 yuan.
In North China, the market remains unbalanced, with fluctuating prices. The mainstream factory price is now 1,850–2,040 yuan, with the lower end up by 50 yuan and the upper end down by 30 yuan. In Hebei, the operating rate of methanol plants has remained largely unchanged, with the mainstream ex-factory price at 1,980–2,040 yuan, down by 30–70 yuan. In Shanxi, supported by rising liquid ammonia prices and reduced methanol production, some manufacturers have increased their prices, with the mainstream factory price at 1,730–2,000 yuan, and the upper end up by 50 yuan.
In the Northeast region, the market has seen minor fluctuations. Despite Daqing Chemical lowering its local sales price by 100 yuan, transactions have remained stable because the actual market price was already below this level. The recent mainstream market price is between 2,100–2,250 yuan, with the lower end down by 50 yuan. Kazakhstan’s methanol gasification price is currently between 2,000–2,200 yuan (with the lower end being the customs price and the upper end the local price), showing little change. Production and sales are normal, with low inventory levels. Daqing Chemical’s ex-factory price is 2,000–2,200 yuan, with the upper end down by 100 yuan, while production continues normally and sales remain moderate.
In the Southwest region, the market has remained stable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. Recent supply has been sufficient, but demand has not expanded significantly, leading to some shipping pressures. The mainstream market price is now 1,850–1,950 yuan, flat. Sinopec Sichuan-Weifang and Sichuan Jiangyou methanol plants are operating normally, with manufacturers actively organizing product outflows. Factory inventories are under control, and quotations remain steady at 1,700–1,900 yuan. The foreign price in the province is 1,700–1,800 yuan, while the local price ranges from 1,850–1,900 yuan, both flat. As East China methanol prices continue to climb, supplier confidence has improved, suggesting that market prices may see a slow upward trend in the near future.
Overall, the number of imported methanol in the near term remains low, and prices are gradually rising, which has provided additional support to the domestic market. Domestic production has been affected by plant shutdowns and maintenance, while downstream industries have started up, increasing methanol demand. This has helped ease supply-side pressure and supported price increases. However, with the large domestic production capacity, if prices rebound to a certain level, a surge of new supply could flood the market, causing significant disruptions. Therefore, the room for further price increases may be limited.
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