The domestic methanol market has shown a steady upward trend in recent weeks, maintaining a stable and positive development. In East China, the market experienced a strong rebound, with prices rising significantly. The mainstream offer price ranged between 2,280 to 2,380 yuan per ton, up by 60 to 80 yuan compared to the previous period. On the supply side, transportation constraints and tight Asian methanol supplies have led to lower import volumes, pushing transaction prices higher. As prices increased, more methanol from the mainland began flowing into the region, gradually becoming the main source of supply.
The cost of methanol delivered to East China ports recently reached 2,150 to 2,250 yuan per ton, marking a significant increase from earlier levels. Meanwhile, downstream industries such as formaldehyde production are operating at high capacity, driving strong demand for methanol. Combined with rising supply costs and smooth sales, this has prompted major players to raise their quotations, further supporting the price increase.
Looking ahead, the supply in Ningbo is expected to remain stable, with prices holding firm. The mainstream canister price is currently 2,300 to 2,370 yuan, up by 50 to 70 yuan. In Jiangsu ports, methanol turnover remains active, with the mainstream canister price at 2,280 to 2,330 yuan, up by 50 yuan.
In South China, the market has remained stable with a gradual price increase. Rising downstream demand and higher prices in other regions have contributed to a more optimistic outlook. The cost of domestically delivered methanol to South China has recently climbed to 2,200 to 2,300 yuan per ton, although the availability of goods has decreased due to tighter supply from the mainland and increased local consumption. Despite lower stock levels, some shipments are expected to arrive in Hong Kong later, keeping the supply-demand balance relatively stable. The current mainstream market price stands at 2,350 to 2,400 yuan, with the lower end rising by 20 yuan.
In Central China, prices have generally increased, with Hunan seeing a rise due to reduced plant start-ups and increased shipments. In Henan, supply has been stable, but downstream purchase intentions have not significantly increased, leading to a more subdued pricing trend. In northern Henan, the ex-factory price was flat at 1,920 to 2,000 yuan, while in the western region, it rose slightly to 1,910 to 1,940 yuan. In southern Henan, the price remained unchanged at 2,000 to 2,020 yuan. In Hunan, prices increased due to higher shipments to East China and lower regional operating rates, with manufacturers raising prices by 50 yuan to 2,100 to 2,200 yuan. In Hubei, the factory price remained stable at 2,000 to 2,100 yuan, with high-end quotes holding at 2,400 yuan. In Jiangxi, methanol plants operated at low capacity, with ex-factory prices rising to 2,220 to 2,250 yuan, up by 20 to 30 yuan.
In North China, the market has been more volatile, with prices fluctuating. The mainstream ex-factory price ranged from 1,850 to 2,040 yuan, with the lower end up by 50 yuan and the upper end down by 30 yuan. In Hebei, the operating rate of methanol plants remained largely unchanged, with the mainstream ex-factory price at 1,980 to 2,040 yuan, down by 30 to 70 yuan. In Shanxi, supported by rising liquid ammonia prices and reduced methanol output, some manufacturers raised prices, with the mainstream ex-factory price at 1,730 to 2,000 yuan, with the upper end up by 50 yuan.
In the Northeast, the market has seen minor fluctuations. Although Daqing Chemical lowered its local sales price by 100 yuan, transactions remained stable as the actual market price had already been below that level. The recent mainstream market price is between 2,100 and 2,250 yuan, with the lower end down by 50 yuan. Kazakhstan’s methanol gasification price is between 2,000 and 2,200 yuan (with the lower end being the customs price and the upper end the local price), remaining flat. Production and sales are normal, with low inventory levels. Daqing Chemical’s ex-factory price is 2,000 to 2,200 yuan (lower end is customs price, upper end is local price), with the upper end down by 100 yuan, and general sales performance.
In the Southwest, the market has remained stable with limited price fluctuations. Supply has been sufficient, but demand has not expanded significantly, putting some pressure on suppliers. The mainstream market price is currently 1,850 to 1,950 yuan, flat. Sinopec Sichuan-Weifang and Sichuan Jiangyou methanol plants are operating normally, with manufacturers actively supplying goods. Factory inventories are under control, and quotations remain steady at 1,700 to 1,900 yuan, unchanged. The foreign price in the province is 1,700 to 1,800 yuan, while local prices range from 1,850 to 1,900 yuan, also flat.
With continued price increases in East China, supplier confidence has improved. Overall, the market outlook suggests a slow upward trend in methanol prices. However, given the large domestic production capacity, any significant price rebound could lead to a flood of supply, potentially damaging the market. Therefore, the room for further price increases is likely to be limited.
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