The urea market is hard to be affected by many unfavorable factors this autumn

Since August, the domestic urea market has seen a sharp decline. Compared to the high prices in June and July, urea prices have dropped by 100 to 300 yuan per ton, with some areas experiencing a drop of up to 400 yuan—whether at the factory or wholesale level. Many analysts point to the end of the agricultural season as the main reason. Indeed, with the start of autumn, the peak period for fertilizer use has largely passed across most regions, leading to a significant drop in demand for agricultural urea. However, it's worth noting that last year, during the same period in August and September, urea prices actually rose, and even continued to climb through October, November, and December. The key difference lies in the structure of the market this year versus last. Last year, after the agricultural peak, there were still strong demands from other sectors, which supported the price. First, exports were booming. In the second half of last year, international urea prices were high, and China’s export controls were not strict, leading to a surge in urea exports. This created a situation where both the domestic and export markets were competing for the same supply. Second, compound fertilizer demand played a role. Due to strict price controls on urea during the winter storage period, dealers avoided stockpiling urea but instead focused on other fertilizers like compound fertilizers. This increased the demand for urea from compound fertilizer producers, indirectly supporting the market. Third, industrial urea demand was strong. Last year, China’s economy was growing rapidly, and industries such as man-made boards and melamine saw a surge in demand for industrial urea, further boosting the market. This year, however, the situation is different. The government imposed strict export controls, including a 30% export tax starting June 1st, which led to a sharp decline in exports. In July, China exported only 57,000 tons, down 64% from 157,000 tons in July 2004. Although the export tax was reduced to 15% in November and December, the effective cost per ton still exceeds 200 yuan unless international prices are extremely high. Additionally, the compound fertilizer market has been weak this year. With lower profits from winter storage last year, dealers are less motivated to stock up this time, reducing the demand for urea from compound fertilizer producers. On the industrial side, the government banned the issuance of value-added tax invoices for industrial urea after July, which significantly increased costs for companies using it. Combined with slower economic growth, demand from wood-based panel and melamine industries has also declined. In summary, while industrial urea demand is still present, the overall growth rate has slowed. As a result, it's unlikely that the urea market will experience the same kind of hot period as last year this fall.

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