TDI market alarms overcapacity

Bayer's annual production capacity of 250,000 tons of toluene diisocyanate (TDI) project at the Shanghai/Israel Integrated Base will be put into operation in the near future. At that time, the total domestic production capacity is expected to reach around 880,000 tons/year, and the situation that the market is in short supply will be completely overturned.

Since 2009, the self-sufficiency rate of China's TDI has steadily increased. The total domestic production capacity in the first half of this year was 510,000 tons. After the release of Bayer, Juli, and Suihua's new capacity plans in the second half of this year, according to the operating rate of 85% to 90%, the total output will be as high as 700,000 tons. Relevant data show that last year China's apparent demand for TDI was about 470,000 tons. This year, under the influence of poor domestic financial environment, appreciation of the renminbi, monetary tightening, domestic inflation and declining exports, the downstream demand growth rate of TDI is expected to be much lower than 10%, that is, the apparent demand is about 500,000 tons. After the Bayer project is put into production, the contradiction of oversupply in the domestic TDI market will become more apparent.

TDI is a capital and technology-intensive product with strong bargaining power. At present, domestic TDI production companies mainly include six companies, namely Shanghai BASF, Gansu Yinguang, Cangzhou Dahua, North Jinhua, Bluestar Cleaning and Yantai Juli. Due to the fact that China’s demand is rising during the past few years and there is a gap in the market, in 2009, there were three sets of domestic production capacity of 150,000 tons/year.

Although there were new installations completed and put into production in 2009, the market demand increased simultaneously and prices remained stable. However, in the past year or two, domestic TDI production capacity and production have risen rapidly and the consumption growth rate has been relatively slow. The continued sluggish market demand has caused the recent TDI market to be lightly traded and the buyers and sellers have been slightly deadlocked. Even under the background of rising crude oil prices, the TDI pushed up and remained weak, even falling to the lowest point since 2008. This week, the quotation of domestic factories is basically around 20,000 yuan/ton.

In the face of explosive growth in TDI production capacity, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Isocyanate (MDI/TDI) Industry Access Requirements” as early as December 9, 2009. The entry conditions clearly require that the initial size of a single set of newly built TDI equipment must reach 150,000 tons/year and above (except for reconstruction or expansion projects). In this way, in the increasingly saturated market demand, the contradiction between supply and demand will become more prominent with each additional installation.

In accordance with the economic laws, when the industry economy is good and the prospects are better, everyone is flocking. However, when the industry is in a recession, or when there is a recession, or when the market is severely saturated and the competition is intense, companies are hard to withdraw. The result is the industry. There was a large excess of production capacity within the company and the profits plummeted. In addition, it is not negligible that the domestic TDI distribution channels will be opened up to foreign investment. With the passage of time, it will be gradually penetrated and expanded, which will inevitably trigger a revolutionary competition in the TDI industry.

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