Refined oil prices lowered to promote car demand growth


At 0:00 on the 29th, the highest retail price of gasoline and diesel decreased by 220 yuan per ton, equivalent to a decrease of 0.16 yuan and 0.19 yuan per liter respectively. Analysts believe that Galaxy Securities, refined oil prices down the trend, will ease consumer concerns about rising car costs, to maintain the automotive industry's "recommended" investment rating.

The continuous upward adjustment of refined oil prices makes the rapid rise in oil prices expected to increase in the short term. Therefore, the reduction in oil prices will help ease some potential consumers’ expectations for a significant increase in future oil prices, and also include passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The cost of using these models has dropped significantly, and it has formed favorable results for all sub-sectors.

Taking the Beijing area as an example, the oil cost can account for more than 40% of the family car use cost, which is the largest one among the user fees. The oil price reduction will undoubtedly contribute to the consumption of passenger cars, especially cars. Especially in the context of the subsidence of domestic passenger car consumption areas and the shift to second- and third-line regions, since other costs such as parking fees are relatively small in these regions, the cost of oil is a higher proportion of passenger car use cost. The second oil price reduction has a positive effect on further boosting consumer confidence.

The reduction in oil prices will also have a positive impact on commercial vehicles. The annual mileage of heavy-duty trucks and coaches mainly used for passenger and cargo transportation is more than 100,000 kilometers. The cost of oil used accounts for a large proportion of the total cost, including acquisition costs, even for medium- and heavy-duty trucks. For some models such as the Grand Prix and Da Ke, the cost of oil during the life span may even exceed the purchase cost.

After the reform of refined oil and gas tariffs and the pricing mechanism for refined oil products, the elasticity of auto demand for oil prices will gradually emerge. "Multiple use, more use, less use less" makes a small displacement, fuel-efficient cars have an absolute advantage in the use of cost.

Since July and August belonged to the traditional off-season of automobile sales, some investors were concerned that there would be a larger sequential decline in July and August, which was also an important reason for the recent stagnation of auto stocks. However, judging from the current sales of the top 25 car companies in the industry, the average daily sales from July 1st to 24th have been basically the same as in June. It is expected that the sales of passenger cars in July will not be too low in the off-season. . The downward adjustment of oil prices will help convert potential consumption into actual consumption. Analysts are optimistic about the leading car companies with core competitiveness of the products and the leading companies that have lagged behind the industry in terms of average growth in the previous period and have relatively large exports.



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