Exxon Mobil Corporation stated that the world's energy demand is expected to grow at a rate of 1.6% per annum and by 2030 it will increase by about 60% from 2000. The annual growth rate of the developing Asia-Pacific region will reach 3.2%. The annual growth rate of demand for transportation fuels and chemicals is 1.7%. By then, oil, natural gas and coal will still be the main energy sources, accounting for about 80% of the total energy consumption.
According to the forecast, in 2030, traditional fossil fuels will continue to provide major energy demand. According to Exxon Mobil analysis, the world’s conventional oil resources totaled 3.2 trillion barrels; non-global conventional oil resources such as heavy oil, including discovered and undiscovered resources, total more than 4 trillion barrels. As of 2005, the world produced about 1 trillion barrels of oil, and the remaining more than 2 trillion barrels of conventional resources are still available for exploitation. The Middle East and Russia-Caspian region have the largest remaining resources, and North America has exceeded 50%.
Exxon Mobil predicts that oil production will continue to grow in the next 25 years. After 2010, global oil demand will increase dependence on OPEC crude oil production. By 2030, OPEC will produce crude oil to reach 47 million barrels per day. The petroleum products of 2030 will be obtained through refining processes, synthetic natural gas and a small amount of non-OPEC oil sands, oil shale and coal oil. By then, the use of biofuels will also increase.
It also expects that natural gas demand will also grow steadily in 2030, with the world average annual growth rate of 1.8%, but North America's average annual growth rate is only 0.5%. At present, the use of natural gas in the Asia-Pacific region is much lower than in North America and Europe, but demand will grow rapidly. By 2030, the demand for natural gas in the Asia Pacific region will be equal to the demand for 90 billion cubic feet per day in North America.
Natural gas imports will become more and more important in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. LNG imports will serve as a bridge to bridge the gap between demand growth and local supply decline. By 2030, North American LNG imports are expected to increase to 25% of natural gas supply. European natural gas imports will increase to 85% of supply. Asia-Pacific region has now relied on LNG to supplement local natural gas supply. By 2030, LNG imports will maintain about 1/3 of the supply of natural gas.
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