First, the status quo of industrial development
Since the beginning of this year, despite the fact that the Chinese economy is facing greater downward pressure and the industrial economy has been slowing, the overall strength of the Chinese equipment industry has been continuously improved. In particular, high-end equipment manufacturing, such as smart manufacturing, is poised to become a fusion of technology and industry. New highlights.
1. China's robot market will exceed one trillion yuan
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first half of this year, the output value of high-end equipment manufacturing such as smart manufacturing, high-end rail transportation, and ocean engineering accounted for more than 10% of the equipment manufacturing industry. Among them, the robot-based smart manufacturing industry has attracted much attention. Under the background of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial recovery, the competition around the commanding heights of science and technology and industrial development has become increasingly fierce. Industrial robots, hailed as the crown jewel of the manufacturing industry, will bring about a dramatic change in the manufacturing model.
Last year, industrial robots showed a booming trend. The reporter learned from the International Robot Federation that more than 300,000 industrial robots were equipped and sold worldwide last year, and Asia has become the world’s highest growth rate for industrial robots. According to statistics, 100,000 industrial robots were sold to Asia in 2013, an increase of 18% year-on-year; China has become the world’s largest industrial robot market. In 2013, China purchased and assembled nearly 37,000 industrial robots, including more than 9,000 domestic robots. Taiwan, production is 3 times in 2012.
“As technology improves, the advantages of low robot cost, high work quality, high accuracy, and energy saving and emission reduction will become more obvious. The Chinese robot market will exceed one trillion yuan in one or two years.†Director of China Robot Industry Alliance Kui said.
2. Domestic robots need to break through to the high end
It is understood that the most widely used robot is in the automotive industry. According to Arturo Baensenelli, chairman of the International Robot Federation, the demand for robots in the automotive industry will continue to increase in the future. Especially in China, the rapid growth of the automobile industry will become a huge impetus for the development of the robot industry.
Qu Dao-kui expects that after the automotive industry, electronic products and electronic communications will become important robot markets; sanitary, kitchen, ceramics and other industries will face difficulties in recruiting, rising labor costs, and a large number of robots will become inevitable. Chips, In the photovoltaic, LED, and biochemical pharmaceutical industries, there are many conditions in the workshop that are not conducive to manual work, and the advantages of robots have begun to appear.
However, domestic robots are far from meeting market demand. According to Li Xiaojia, director of the China Federation of Robotic Industry Data Statistics, China purchased and assembled nearly 37,000 industrial robots in 2013. Among them, foreign-funded robots generally use high-end industrial robots with 6 or more axes, and they almost monopolize high-end automobile manufacturing and welding. Industry sector, accounting for 96%. The main applications of domestic robots are mainly the handling and loading and unloading robots, which are in the low end of the industry.
Wang Ruixiang, president of the China National Machinery Industry Federation, said that there is still a gap between domestic robots and robots from developed countries. “In the past, we could only import robots. We began to explore as cats and tigers, but the quality and longevity of products did not increase, and the international brand awareness The reason is not high. The fundamental reason lies in the lack of core competitiveness in technology."
3, robot industry ready to go
“The brewing and advancement of a new round of science and technology and industrial reform will also provide China with a rare opportunity to catch up with and surpass the development.†Su Bo, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that high-end equipment manufacturing is the core of equipment manufacturing. It is an important symbol to measure the core competitiveness of a country’s industry. It must be highly valued, accelerated, and strive to achieve major breakthroughs in a number of key areas.
Su Bo proposed to speed up the development of key components and devices such as industrial robots, sensors, and intelligent instrumentation, and focused on breakthroughs in a number of "CNC Generation" products and intelligent manufacturing equipment for the important industries of the national economy, and accelerating the implementation of smart manufacturing equipment development projects, 2020 Years ago, we selected key industries to carry out smart manufacturing pilots. After 2020, we will implement smart manufacturing.
International robotics experts generally believe that robot development will be the beginning of the third industrial revolution. Experts also proposed the next step in the robotics industry to solve the difficult problem: "human-machine collaboration", that is, workers and robots work together in the workshop, people do more creative work with the help of the robot, and the robot is engaged in high precision, repeat Strong work.
Wang Ruixiang suggested that Chinese robotics companies should establish a global vision, learn modestly from international advanced technologies and management models, rationally plan investments and research directions, cultivate their own core competitiveness, and strengthen the construction of the entire industry chain. Chinese robots realize “human-machine collaborationâ€. Going abroad will no longer be a distant dream.
Second, industry development is facing challenges: the gap is widened
1. China's Strategy in the Global Robot Industry Competition
Advanced industrialized countries and regions are relying on their technological superiority to launch a new round of strategic layouts for the robotics industry. As the world's largest potential demand market, China has only to accelerate its catch-up pace so that it will not be further and further. In recent years, with the accelerating pace of innovation and integration between artificial intelligence technology, digital manufacturing technology and mobile Internet, the development of the global robot industry is showing a new trend.
According to the statistics of the International Robot Association (IFR), from 2002 to 2013, the annual growth rate of newly installed industrial robots has reached 9%. In 2013, sales of global industrial robots reached 168,000 units. Among these, thanks to the rapid growth in the demand of developing countries represented by China, Asia has become the world's largest demand market. According to statistics, from 2007 to 2013, the average annual compound growth rate of Asian industrial robot sales reached 20%, and China reached 25%.
Faced with this situation, developed countries and enterprises in the world's robotics industry are stepping up their strategic layout and seizing the commanding heights of robotics and industrial development. This has made the gap between China's robot development and foreign countries further widened.
For this reason, it is necessary to thoroughly analyze the development situation and trends of the foreign robot industry in order to provide reference and enlightenment for the development of China's robot industry.
2. Developed countries seize the commanding heights of industrial development
In recent years, the convergence of innovations in next-generation information technology and robotics, represented by big data, cloud computing, and mobile Internet, has accelerated. It will not only develop new types of intelligent robots that are more autonomous and capable of autonomous problem solving, but also can be used as robots. Establish a "cloud space" for the Internet and the knowledge base to allow them to interact via the Internet and enhance the level of intelligence of robots through cloud computing.
Faced with the new situation, developed industrialized countries and regions have made strategic arrangements one after another to seize the commanding heights of the development of the robot industry. The United States implements the "reindustrialization" strategy. In the "Advanced Manufacturing Partner Program (AMP)" that was launched in 2011, it is clarified that through the development of industrial robots, it is necessary to revitalize the US manufacturing industry and rely on the advantages of information network technology to invest 2.8 billion U.S. dollars in development. A new generation of intelligent robots in mobile internet.
The European Union has invested 600 million U.S. dollars for the R&D of robots through the Seventh Framework Program and plans to invest 900 million U.S. dollars in robot manufacturing for the “2020 Horizon†project. Japan has formulated a long-term development strategy for robotics and increased the input of the robot industry as one of the seven key industries supported by the "New Industry Development Strategy." In the field of humanoid robots, it plans to invest 350 million U.S. dollars in 10 years. Korea formulated the "Basic Plan for Intelligent Robots," and in October 2012, it released "The Future Strategic Vision for Robots 2022," which will focus on expanding the Korean robotics industry and supporting domestic robotics companies to expand into overseas markets.
Among these, the service robot field has gradually become the focus of development in developed countries. The United States released the "Robots Technology Roadmap: From the Internet to Robots" in March 2013, emphasizing the important role of robotics in health care services and its potential in creating new markets, new jobs, and improving people's lives. . The EU stated that it will formulate a R&D roadmap and time schedule for EU robotics, in particular home service robotics, as soon as possible.
In 2013, Japan established the “Robot Special Zone†in Kanagawa Prefecture and Ibaraki Prefecture, investing 1 billion yen to promote the development and application of service robots such as nursing robots and disaster relief robots. In 2010, South Korea put forward a “service robot development strategy†and plans to narrow the gap with developed countries by opening up new markets. In 2012, the Robot Development Ten-Year Plan was launched with the goal of implementing a robot for each family.
3. China faces a widening gap
As China has become the world's largest potential demand market, the number of well-known robot companies abroad has continued to expand into China. The International Robot Association predicts that China is expected to become the world’s largest robot market this year or next year. In response to this development trend, foreign major robotics companies are no longer satisfied with using China as a product sales and technical service market, and have begun to use China as a robot production base and go from the assembly of the whole machine to the production of key components.
For example, the German company KUKA established a new factory in Shanghai in October 2012, and Yaskawa Electric of Japan established the first overseas robot production base in Changzhou, Jiangsu, China in July 2012. The USA's Adelpu Robot Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. was established in 2012. Muse Robotics GmbH established a new plant in Suzhou in 2013. Since 2013, Hyundai Heavy Industries has sought to establish a production base in China.
It is worth noting that while developed countries and major companies in the West rely on their existing technological advantages to seize the commanding elevation of industrial development, the gap between the development of China's robotics industry and foreign countries is further increased.
First of all, the innovation and development of a new generation of intelligent robots is more urgent. Although China has made initial progress in the development and industrialization of traditional robotics, it still lags behind in the combination of information network technology and robotics. Internet companies are not very aware of the development of robotics technology, and no one company has participated in robot technology. In the course of industrial development, this will inevitably cause the gap between China's robotics technology and industrial development and developed countries to further widen.
Secondly, foreign companies and brands have taken up space for the development of robotics companies in China. China's robotics industry is still at an initial stage. Industrial robots lack brand recognition. The largest robotics company only has a few thousand robots per year. The robot market is basically occupied by foreign companies and brands. ABB, Sweden, Fanuc, and Yaskawa of Japan The products of foreign well-known enterprises such as Germany, Kuka, etc. have a market share of nearly 90% in the Chinese market, only FANUC, and its robotic products account for 23% of the market share in China. As foreign robot companies have adopted China as a production base, the market space for the development of independent brand manufacturers will be further compressed.
Finally, the risk of hollowing out the robot industry has further expanded. China's robotics companies mostly process and assemble, lacking key core technologies. High-performance AC servo motors, precision reducers, controllers and other key core components have long been dependent on imports. For example, precision reducers are almost monopolized by Teijin and Harmonic in Japan. The high selling price has directly pushed up the production cost of China's robotic products, reduced the market competitiveness of the products, and made the development of robots in China face the risk of industrial hollowing in the process of assembly and locking.
4, to accelerate the pace of catch up
The development experience and model of the robot industry in developed countries are worthy of our study and reference. Our country needs to combine the actual development and focus on strengthening the following aspects:
1) Strengthen top-level design and forward-looking layout. Strengthen the tracking research on international robotics technology, grasp the development trend of robots under the information network technology conditions, and study and develop the “Robots Technology Roadmap†that meets the actual development of China as soon as possible, clarify the steps of technological development, key key technologies that break through, and technology Parts and industrialization paths provide macro guidance for the development of China's robotics industry.
2) Establish a robot development model that is consistent with the development of China. China is about to become the world's largest robot demanding country, and it is recommended to first adopt the “South Korea model†that integrates external procurement with integrated design and system integration, and strengthen integrated applications in the industry subdivision field to expand and occupy the application market. At the same time, learning from the “Japanese modelâ€, we will strengthen the collective research of production, education and research, focus on breaking key core components, and form the overall advancement of the entire industrial chain of robots, key components, and system integrators as soon as possible.
3) Increase policy support for R&D and industrialization. Make use of existing policy channels such as high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment technology major projects, smart manufacturing equipment projects, and other existing policy channels to build innovative application platforms, focusing on strengthening key technology or core technology breakthroughs, key components and joint research, and promoting key components and vehicles, Synchronous R&D and coordination of materials and processes. We will use the guiding role of government finance, increase investment, attract social capital, and explore the establishment of a robotic industry development fund. We will use advantaged enterprises as the core to guide and support enterprise integration and broaden the application channels of industrial robots.
4) Speed ​​up the development of leading enterprises and brands of industrial robots. China should cultivate and develop its own brand of industrial robots as an important task in building an upgraded version of China’s economy. We will improve and improve the first (set) support policy, increase government procurement support, research and establish the first (set) insurance mechanism with government-led and market-oriented operations, and accelerate the application and promotion of robotic products. Actively build a docking platform for production and demand, go deep into the appraisal of scientific and technological achievements, study the establishment of an appraisal and announcement system, publish an industrial robots catalog, and coordinate the development of localization of industrial robots to foster leading robotic enterprises and brands with international competitiveness.
5) It is to strengthen service robot R&D and industrialization applications. Since 2012, China has entered a period of rapid population ageing. It is expected that the first peak of the elderly population growth will occur by 2015. Older people over the age of 60 will increase from 178 million to 221 million, and the proportion of elderly population will increase from 13.3% to 16%. This will make China's old-age care services face great challenges. At the same time, China is also a country prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods. To this end, China needs to carry out forward-looking layouts, learn from Japan and South Korea's robotic development experience, increase input, strengthen the R&D and industrialization of care robots, medical services, and disaster relief service robots, and actively promote regional demonstrations.
Third, the prospects for industrial development
The current human-oriented production model will become a robot-dominated manufacturing model in the future. Although this will reduce some traditional jobs, the new smart manufacturing model will also create many new jobs. Industrial robots are powerful technical means to achieve transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry.
1. Compared with foreign countries, what is the level of domestic industrial robot manufacturing?
We do not lag behind in terms of technology such as control accuracy and functionality. However, there is a gap with foreign countries in the manufacturing process, products, and brands. The key to the gap is the core components, such as servo motors, high-precision gears, speed reducers, and bearings, which are now generally imported.
Of course, the casting, processing and other technological foundations have made great progress in China in the past few years and are not far away. Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the International Mould, Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers Association, believes that robots must form the industry and create brands, and they also need the management capabilities of modern companies. Robots are "three-high" products for capital, technology, and talent, and require constant innovation.
2. In what direction will future industrial robotics develop?
The future will develop into smart robots. The production of robots, the robotic mechanism is the carrier, more depends on the functional connotation. The level of robots depends on control, software, intelligence and other technologies. No intelligent robot is just a low-end robot.
The future development of robots requires informatization and network support. It depends on the development of control technology and sensor technology. Future industrial robots will be typical IoT products. The development of technologies such as control, microelectronics, sensing, and new materials will all provide basic conditions for intelligent robots. After the development of these robot-related support technologies, robotics experts will study how to merge innovations and let robots develop into smart robots.
3. What is the development prospect of the industrial robot industry?
The robot industry is not an ordinary industry and has a development prospect beyond imagination. The industrial revolution turned people into slaves of machines. People serve machines on the production line, work at a fast pace, and the environment is harsh. But industrial robots can liberate mankind from this state and people can do more advanced work. In addition, Luo Baihui believes that serving robots can also change our way of life.
The current human-oriented production model will become a robot-dominated manufacturing model in the future. Although this will reduce some traditional jobs, the new smart manufacturing model will also create many new jobs. In China, there is a structural shortage of labor force, shortage of migrant workers, and shortage of senior technicians, and manufacturing costs have risen sharply.
Industrial robots are powerful technical means to achieve transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry. Robots can change people's future production lifestyle. It can be concluded that in the future, robots, like mobile phones and computers, will enter millions of households and all areas of society.
4. Where should China increase its efforts and seize this opportunity for major changes?
In 2010, the output of robots in China accounted for only one-twentieth of the global robot market. In the automotive industry where industrial robots are most concentrated, there are more than 1,700 robots per 10,000 production workers in Japan, and 1,600 in Italy. The number of robots owned by each 10,000 workers in Japan is less than 90. Since last year, China's robotic application market has begun to take shape.
Last year, the global robot market increased by about 10%, China's growth rate reached 51%, and the growth rate ranked first in the world. The absolute increase was second only to Japan and South Korea, ranking third in the world. This fast-growing market demand will obviously drive the industry and technology. Luo Baihui believes that in the next few years, China's industrial robots will most likely be blowout development rather than simply linear growth.
China should seize this opportunity to formulate relevant policies and measures to vigorously develop China's robotics industry. At the same time, it will use robots and automation equipment to transform and upgrade China's manufacturing industry, and accelerate the adjustment and optimization of China's industrial structure.
IV. Conditions for Real Industrialization
Industrial robot is an irreplaceable important equipment and means in advanced manufacturing industry. It is an important symbol to measure a country's manufacturing level and technology level. China is already recognized as a big manufacturing country in the world. However, with the continuous increase in labor costs, the economic development model must be adjusted. Production automation and development of high-tech industries have become the only way.
1. National policy support is an important prerequisite for accelerating the industrialization of high-tech. Robots belong to the country's strategic high-tech and are a manifestation of many cutting-edge technologies and comprehensive strengths. The country should formulate long-term policies for planning and development. The state provides certain preferential policies in terms of capital, taxation, and other aspects, incorporates the development of the robot industry into important industrial policies, and encourages enterprises to adopt domestically produced robots.
2. It is to promote the construction of the industry-university-research-and-research alliance and form a strong research, development and application team. Industrial robots involve many disciplines such as mechanics, automation, computers, artificial intelligence, etc. Only by organizing all domestic forces and working together can we engage in technological research and compete with foreign companies.
3, it is the situation that the key components mainly depend on imports as soon as possible. The cost and overall solution have become the primary factors for companies to choose industrial robots. The high cost is one of the key factors restricting the further development of domestic robots. In addition to being affected by small batches, the development of domestic robots is mainly constrained by the price of key components. .
4, in addition to efforts to improve the performance of industrial robots, China must also vigorously strengthen large-scale, professional application engineering software development work. In the industrial robot operation system, peripheral equipment and control units account for 80% of the total cost. The development and integration of these devices determines the development cycle of the entire operating system. Its technical performance directly affects the system's production efficiency and product quality. The robot operation system Development has become one of the key factors restricting the promotion and application of industrial robots.
5. It is an effort to enter the automotive field and actively explore new application markets. The automotive industry is an industrial robot application Taihu. China has developed the automobile industry as a pillar industry. Although foreign industrial robot manufacturers have obvious advantages in this field, they can still avoid deficiencies and show their skills in many small and medium-sized enterprises.
6. It is to strengthen the building of talents. To create a long-term mechanism for talents of high-tech talents, to attract talents, cultivate talents, and retain talents. The competition among high-tech enterprises is the competition of talents, there is no talent, and talk about development.
7. The popularity of robotic knowledge plays a significant role in the process of industrialization of robots. Therefore, it is necessary to further increase the propaganda of industrial robots.
V. Policy and Strategy for Developing Robot Industry
In view of the advanced robot technology and industrial development laws of advanced countries and the current situation in China, China should focus on the following aspects in the process of developing robots in the future:
1. While drawing on the advanced industrial countries’ experience in developing industrial robots, in response to the characteristics of our country’s robotics industry and the problems faced, we have strengthened the top-level design of the robot technology route, refined the industrial development path and implementation methods, and formulated the next-generation robot technology development in China as soon as possible. Blueprint and industrial unified development plan lay a solid foundation for industrial development. To ensure that China's robotics industry can continue to develop in the right direction.
2. Relying on the core R&D team with solid foundation and strength in China, establish a multi-level robot technology innovation system that closely integrates production, education and research. Robotics are difficult and risky. Experience at home and abroad shows that it is impossible for companies to achieve robot technology leapfrogging and industrial development alone. The combination of production, education and research, and the effective integration of innovative value Chains according to the requirements of the industrial chain are the fundamental ways to achieve technological breakthroughs and industrial development.
For example, in order to promote the “return of manufacturing industryâ€, in 2012, the United States began to implement the “Manufacturing Innovation Network†program, created a new scientific research institution, and engaged in research and development of common basic technologies for the purpose of transforming achievements, aiming at strengthening research institutions and manufacturing enterprises. Cooperation among them supports and complements the inadequacies of national and regional innovation systems. Germany also attaches great importance to the integration of production and research. KUKA Robotics and the German Space Agency have jointly developed the next generation of industrial robots and achieved a new round of competitive advantages.
3. For enterprises engaged in robot R&D and industrialization, the state should give corresponding policy support and encouragement under the precondition of WTO rules. Especially for national major engineering projects, actively tap user needs, mobilize the enthusiasm of users for adopting domestic robots, promote the first application and industrialization process, encourage and develop robotic automation package companies, and increase the use of robots to solve national economic needs and industrial engineering problems. Ability to form a good interaction between the robot body development and robot engineering applications.
4. Deeply understand the laws of robotics and industrial development and realize leapfrog development. The "robot revolution" is an integral part of the third industrial revolution characterized by digitization, intelligence, and networking. The promotion of technologies such as mobile internet, big data, and cloud computing has made it possible for robots to become new terminals and nodes for the Internet of Things, which has greatly expanded the capabilities of robots. We must pay close attention to this new trend of development. We must develop a new generation of informatized robots that are network terminals to meet the needs of the new industrial revolution and realize industrial revolutions and breakthroughs.
5. The training of talents in the robot field should continue to be strengthened. Through the establishment of an expert database of scientific research talents in the field of robotics, we have established a sound incentive mechanism for robotic science and technology talents, optimized the environment for the development of innovative talents, and focused on cultivating a group of high-level leaders in scientific research to cultivate high-level innovation teams capable of undertaking major projects in robotics and industrial development. Starting from education, formulate a long-term robot talent reserve plan, universities, robotics companies and related research institutes in China to establish a joint personnel training plan; focus on cultivating classification, and train various parts of the robot industry chain from scientific research, technological research, engineering applications, etc. Specialized personnel.
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