The rise of new energy in the financial crisis The global financial crisis is accompanied by the cold wind in this winter. Energy has become one of the most sensitive faces in the crisis. Coal, oil, etc. have rapidly declined after the price surge. What will happen to the energy industry in the coming 2009 and the future?
"The financial industry will experience unprecedented challenges in this crisis, and the energy industry, especially the rapidly developing new energy industry, will likely take advantage of this crisis to become the strongest economic pillar in the future." China Finance He Shihong, president of the Institute, told China Economic Weekly.
The energy demand is fully declining. Compared with the skyrocketing prices of coal for power generation at the beginning of the year, prices at the end of 2008 have already dropped significantly. Under the influence of the global financial crisis, not only coal, electricity, oil and other energy industries have experienced the "ice fire" two days.
At the beginning of 2008, the frozen rain and snow disasters in China greatly impeded the transportation of coal. Together with the shutdown of some small coal mines, the price of coal for power generation soared. After the ice disaster in the south, the coal market gradually returned to normal with the cracking of transportation bottlenecks. However, due to the huge demand for coal from thermal power generation and the steel market, coal supply is still tight and prices remain high. Domestic standard coal prices have risen from 400 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2008 to 1100 yuan at the highest.
With the deceleration of the national economy and the resulting slowdown in power demand, the power coal supply situation reversed in the fourth quarter of 2008. In October, a change in coal supply in the summer was strained. The country’s social coal inventory was 178 million tons, up 29.9% from July. By the end of November, the Qinhuangdao port coal stockpiles exceeded 9 million tons, and coal storage days were 20 days; and the port is normal. The coal deposit days are only 10 days. At the beginning of December, the nation's coal social inventories reached 184 million tons, while the inventory of five major power generation groups reached more than 50 million tons, which was the highest level in history. The coal storage days of power plants have been approaching one month.
Zhang Baoguo, director of the National Energy Administration, said that the electricity demand for electricity in a single month in October 2008 fell by 3.7% year-on-year, which was the first month of electricity consumption in a single month since 1999, while the monthly electricity consumption in November decreased by a year-on-year. Up to 8.6%, the negative impact of the international financial crisis and the economic situation on the domestic economy fully emerged. According to the latest data, domestic coal prices are affected by unfavorable factors such as continued weakening of demand, and the downward trend continues to accelerate. At the end of November 2008, Qinhuangdao Port generated 6,000 kcal/kg of coal for 680~700 yuan/ton.
At the same time, the domestic demand for refined oil products has also dropped significantly, and refined oil products have turned from supply shortage in the first half of the year to more than supply, and some regions have experienced pressure storage.
Affected by factors such as the increase in thermal coal prices in the first three quarters of 2008 and the decline in electricity demand caused by the financial crisis, the losses of power generation companies in the industry continued to expand. The information from the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation shows that the production and operation of power generation companies have been unprecedentedly challenged and severely tested. They all suffered from group losses, and the thermal power companies suffered a 90% loss. This is the most difficult period in history. Some groups have incurred financial losses due to huge losses. The situation deteriorated rapidly. From January to October, the five largest power generation enterprise groups had a total loss of 26.8 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 28.3 billion yuan in the same period of last year.
Energy has always been regarded as a "barometer" of the national economy. He Shihong, head of the China Academy of Finance, told China Economic Weekly that "the decline in energy demand has triggered a full fall in energy prices, and this downward trend has become apparent."
The energy industry ushered in the adjustment of opportunities When energy demand is fully down, China's energy industry structure is brewing new changes.
According to the latest data released by the China Electricity Council, due to continued losses in thermal power, the “investment is cooling down.†The power supply structure in China has quietly changed, and the proportion of hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power has begun to rise sharply.
In China's power supply structure, power supply investment in 2007 increased by 7.36% year-on-year, far lower than the proportion of investment in the country, but the power structure has undergone fundamental changes, and hydropower has increased by 9.6% year-on-year, while the traditional "power king" - The thermal power growth was a negative year-on-year increase of -10.08%.
The relevant person of China Electric Power Association stated that the negative growth of thermal power is in line with the current law, and this trend may continue to continue. At the same time, nuclear power and wind power maintained high-speed growth. Nuclear power increased by 73.98% year-on-year, and wind power increased by 173.94% year-on-year.
“The financial crisis has brought severe challenges to the energy industry in China and also provided rare adjustment opportunities.†On December 29, 2008, Zhang Baoguo, director of the National Energy Administration, pointed out: “The financial crisis has eased the contradiction between energy supply and demand, and it has been tense. The tight contradiction between coal, electricity, oil, and transportation has been greatly eased, providing an important period of opportunity for the energy industry to 'restorize and maintain interest' and resolve some deep-level contradictions; the world’s economic growth has slowed down significantly, causing the fall in international energy resources and asset prices. We have developed favorable conditions for exploiting and utilizing overseas energy resources and enhancing scientific and technological strength."
Zhang Baoguo said that at present, there is a dual-track system of "coal coexistence between thermal coal market price and thermal coal contract price". The downward trend of CPI and the decline in the prices of international bulk energy resources commodities also provide possibilities and space for the further improvement of the formation mechanism of the coal price market, for rationalizing the relationship between coal and electricity prices, and improving the operating conditions of the power generation industry.
Zhang Guobao said that the country will cultivate large-scale energy enterprise groups. Provide guarantees from the system and operation mechanism, guide enterprises to achieve cross-industry integration and reorganization, encourage joint development of coal, electricity, roads, ports, and other related industries, or “integrated development†and “enhance national control and influence on energyâ€.
New Energy Investment Becomes Mainstream In 2009, while the country implemented the “larger and smaller†plan for traditional coal-fired power projects, it will continue to accelerate the construction of large-scale, clean and high-efficiency energy projects.
Zhang Guobao said that the next step is to build nuclear power projects, wind power projects, and large-scale coal bases that are of great significance to optimize the energy structure and have a significant driving effect, and to build a cross-regional coal, electricity, oil, and gas transmission channel for the overall and strategic security of petroleum. The construction of strategic material reserve facilities such as natural uranium, as well as rural power grids, urban power grids, and urban oil and gas pipelines, will increase investment. China will also vigorously develop nuclear power and renewable energy, formulate policies that encourage the accelerated development of wind power, and accelerate the development of new energy sources such as solar energy. Next year, we will begin construction of nuclear power plants in Zhejiang Sanmen, Shandong Haiyang, Guangdong Yaogu and Shandong Rongcheng.
In fact, in recent years, the development of new energy in China is accelerating. As a new energy industry, the photovoltaic industry ushered in a period of rapid development before 2008, but it has changed in the second half of 2008. Under the influence of the financial crisis, some photovoltaic manufacturers faced declining demand, lower profits, and shortage of funds. fate. In contrast, the wind power industry is more resistant to the decline in demand.
Qin Haiyan, secretary-general of the China Wind Energy Association, told China Economic Weekly that if we persist in and improve the active wind power support policy and steadily increase the production capacity and technical quality of wind power equipment, it is expected that China will continue to maintain about 4 million kilowatts per year in the next few years. With the growth rate of installed capacity, wind power can accumulate 1400 to 15 million kilowatts in 2010, and if 700 to 8 million kilowatts are added each year after 2010 to reach the current level in Europe, the conservative estimate of wind power can reach 80 million in 2020. 100 million kilowatts installed capacity. After 2020, China's wind power may surpass nuclear power to become the third largest main power source, and in 2050 it may even exceed hydropower and become the second largest main power source. By then, wind power generation may become one of China's major strategic energy sources.
“The energy industry, as a huge supply chain for the national economy, is playing a stable and sustainable development momentum in the recent financial crisis. The financial crisis has caused many industries to suffer serious injuries, while the energy industry, especially the new energy industry, will have It is possible that this crisis will develop rapidly. This is a great opportunity for the development of new energy." He Shihong told China Economic Weekly that the oversupply pattern of traditional industries is difficult to change. Under the background of volatile oil prices, energy, especially new energy Industrial investment in the sector will be the only strategy for China’s future economic growth, and it will also be the breakthrough point for local governments to find new economic growth points.
"The financial industry will experience unprecedented challenges in this crisis, and the energy industry, especially the rapidly developing new energy industry, will likely take advantage of this crisis to become the strongest economic pillar in the future." China Finance He Shihong, president of the Institute, told China Economic Weekly.
The energy demand is fully declining. Compared with the skyrocketing prices of coal for power generation at the beginning of the year, prices at the end of 2008 have already dropped significantly. Under the influence of the global financial crisis, not only coal, electricity, oil and other energy industries have experienced the "ice fire" two days.
At the beginning of 2008, the frozen rain and snow disasters in China greatly impeded the transportation of coal. Together with the shutdown of some small coal mines, the price of coal for power generation soared. After the ice disaster in the south, the coal market gradually returned to normal with the cracking of transportation bottlenecks. However, due to the huge demand for coal from thermal power generation and the steel market, coal supply is still tight and prices remain high. Domestic standard coal prices have risen from 400 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2008 to 1100 yuan at the highest.
With the deceleration of the national economy and the resulting slowdown in power demand, the power coal supply situation reversed in the fourth quarter of 2008. In October, a change in coal supply in the summer was strained. The country’s social coal inventory was 178 million tons, up 29.9% from July. By the end of November, the Qinhuangdao port coal stockpiles exceeded 9 million tons, and coal storage days were 20 days; and the port is normal. The coal deposit days are only 10 days. At the beginning of December, the nation's coal social inventories reached 184 million tons, while the inventory of five major power generation groups reached more than 50 million tons, which was the highest level in history. The coal storage days of power plants have been approaching one month.
Zhang Baoguo, director of the National Energy Administration, said that the electricity demand for electricity in a single month in October 2008 fell by 3.7% year-on-year, which was the first month of electricity consumption in a single month since 1999, while the monthly electricity consumption in November decreased by a year-on-year. Up to 8.6%, the negative impact of the international financial crisis and the economic situation on the domestic economy fully emerged. According to the latest data, domestic coal prices are affected by unfavorable factors such as continued weakening of demand, and the downward trend continues to accelerate. At the end of November 2008, Qinhuangdao Port generated 6,000 kcal/kg of coal for 680~700 yuan/ton.
At the same time, the domestic demand for refined oil products has also dropped significantly, and refined oil products have turned from supply shortage in the first half of the year to more than supply, and some regions have experienced pressure storage.
Affected by factors such as the increase in thermal coal prices in the first three quarters of 2008 and the decline in electricity demand caused by the financial crisis, the losses of power generation companies in the industry continued to expand. The information from the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation shows that the production and operation of power generation companies have been unprecedentedly challenged and severely tested. They all suffered from group losses, and the thermal power companies suffered a 90% loss. This is the most difficult period in history. Some groups have incurred financial losses due to huge losses. The situation deteriorated rapidly. From January to October, the five largest power generation enterprise groups had a total loss of 26.8 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 28.3 billion yuan in the same period of last year.
Energy has always been regarded as a "barometer" of the national economy. He Shihong, head of the China Academy of Finance, told China Economic Weekly that "the decline in energy demand has triggered a full fall in energy prices, and this downward trend has become apparent."
The energy industry ushered in the adjustment of opportunities When energy demand is fully down, China's energy industry structure is brewing new changes.
According to the latest data released by the China Electricity Council, due to continued losses in thermal power, the “investment is cooling down.†The power supply structure in China has quietly changed, and the proportion of hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power has begun to rise sharply.
In China's power supply structure, power supply investment in 2007 increased by 7.36% year-on-year, far lower than the proportion of investment in the country, but the power structure has undergone fundamental changes, and hydropower has increased by 9.6% year-on-year, while the traditional "power king" - The thermal power growth was a negative year-on-year increase of -10.08%.
The relevant person of China Electric Power Association stated that the negative growth of thermal power is in line with the current law, and this trend may continue to continue. At the same time, nuclear power and wind power maintained high-speed growth. Nuclear power increased by 73.98% year-on-year, and wind power increased by 173.94% year-on-year.
“The financial crisis has brought severe challenges to the energy industry in China and also provided rare adjustment opportunities.†On December 29, 2008, Zhang Baoguo, director of the National Energy Administration, pointed out: “The financial crisis has eased the contradiction between energy supply and demand, and it has been tense. The tight contradiction between coal, electricity, oil, and transportation has been greatly eased, providing an important period of opportunity for the energy industry to 'restorize and maintain interest' and resolve some deep-level contradictions; the world’s economic growth has slowed down significantly, causing the fall in international energy resources and asset prices. We have developed favorable conditions for exploiting and utilizing overseas energy resources and enhancing scientific and technological strength."
Zhang Baoguo said that at present, there is a dual-track system of "coal coexistence between thermal coal market price and thermal coal contract price". The downward trend of CPI and the decline in the prices of international bulk energy resources commodities also provide possibilities and space for the further improvement of the formation mechanism of the coal price market, for rationalizing the relationship between coal and electricity prices, and improving the operating conditions of the power generation industry.
Zhang Guobao said that the country will cultivate large-scale energy enterprise groups. Provide guarantees from the system and operation mechanism, guide enterprises to achieve cross-industry integration and reorganization, encourage joint development of coal, electricity, roads, ports, and other related industries, or “integrated development†and “enhance national control and influence on energyâ€.
New Energy Investment Becomes Mainstream In 2009, while the country implemented the “larger and smaller†plan for traditional coal-fired power projects, it will continue to accelerate the construction of large-scale, clean and high-efficiency energy projects.
Zhang Guobao said that the next step is to build nuclear power projects, wind power projects, and large-scale coal bases that are of great significance to optimize the energy structure and have a significant driving effect, and to build a cross-regional coal, electricity, oil, and gas transmission channel for the overall and strategic security of petroleum. The construction of strategic material reserve facilities such as natural uranium, as well as rural power grids, urban power grids, and urban oil and gas pipelines, will increase investment. China will also vigorously develop nuclear power and renewable energy, formulate policies that encourage the accelerated development of wind power, and accelerate the development of new energy sources such as solar energy. Next year, we will begin construction of nuclear power plants in Zhejiang Sanmen, Shandong Haiyang, Guangdong Yaogu and Shandong Rongcheng.
In fact, in recent years, the development of new energy in China is accelerating. As a new energy industry, the photovoltaic industry ushered in a period of rapid development before 2008, but it has changed in the second half of 2008. Under the influence of the financial crisis, some photovoltaic manufacturers faced declining demand, lower profits, and shortage of funds. fate. In contrast, the wind power industry is more resistant to the decline in demand.
Qin Haiyan, secretary-general of the China Wind Energy Association, told China Economic Weekly that if we persist in and improve the active wind power support policy and steadily increase the production capacity and technical quality of wind power equipment, it is expected that China will continue to maintain about 4 million kilowatts per year in the next few years. With the growth rate of installed capacity, wind power can accumulate 1400 to 15 million kilowatts in 2010, and if 700 to 8 million kilowatts are added each year after 2010 to reach the current level in Europe, the conservative estimate of wind power can reach 80 million in 2020. 100 million kilowatts installed capacity. After 2020, China's wind power may surpass nuclear power to become the third largest main power source, and in 2050 it may even exceed hydropower and become the second largest main power source. By then, wind power generation may become one of China's major strategic energy sources.
“The energy industry, as a huge supply chain for the national economy, is playing a stable and sustainable development momentum in the recent financial crisis. The financial crisis has caused many industries to suffer serious injuries, while the energy industry, especially the new energy industry, will have It is possible that this crisis will develop rapidly. This is a great opportunity for the development of new energy." He Shihong told China Economic Weekly that the oversupply pattern of traditional industries is difficult to change. Under the background of volatile oil prices, energy, especially new energy Industrial investment in the sector will be the only strategy for China’s future economic growth, and it will also be the breakthrough point for local governments to find new economic growth points.
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