Natural rubber and tires can complement each other, with respect to each other, tires directly affect the sale of natural rubber, natural rubber directly affect the cost of tires, after the "Eleventh" holiday, Hujiao rebounded for three consecutive trading days (September 30, 2015 closing 11280 On October 12, it closed at 11,800 points, up 520 points, or 4.6%.)
Hujiao continued to rebound, improving market sentiment
Recently, the dreary domestic spot traders have also jumped out, and some people even think that this will be the beginning of Hujiao's rebound, but Longzhong analyst Wang Kaifu has to once again take the dilemma of the tire market to Taiwan. Before, to extinguish the fantasies of some people.
It is understood that the macro factors are the driving factors for the rebound of Hujiao's consecutive three trading days after the “11thâ€, in particular the recent central bank’s promotion of credit assets pledged refinancing pilots to ensure growth of broad money supply and maintain the easing policy of late funding. The market has formed good support, and the domestic A-shares, futures markets, offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates have risen sharply. Hujiao has also become a rebounder.
For three consecutive trading days, market players gradually lost their pessimism and looked for more emotions. It is understood that the rebound in Hujiao's futures did drive the spot offer to go higher, but the actual trading stalemate did not improve. The contradiction between supply and demand was still outstanding, and the high turnover was difficult. In the final analysis, this is caused by the sluggish demand in the downstream market. The importance of the tire market as the main terminal market for natural rubber is self-evident.
Hujiao rebound is a positive sign of the tire market?
The tire market is weak and it is difficult to “return to lifeâ€
China's tire market is relatively dependent on exports. Nearly 70% of semi-steel tires are exported to foreign countries, while the United States is the first export destination country. “Double Anti†imposes high tax rates on Chinese passenger car and light truck tires. , to become the fuse of the Chinese tire market. Although domestic tire companies have actively explored the international market outside the United States, they have not yet opened up the situation where exports have encountered resistance.
At the same time, the domestic economic growth slowed down. Both the radical foreign institutions and the conservative Chinese government had to acknowledge the fact that the real economy was weak. While the export of tires was blocked, domestic sales were also in the doldrums. Although domestic tire companies actively adopt measures such as reducing start-ups, reducing payrolls, layoffs, and price cuts to control inventory and costs, they can only maintain operations. In previous years, the "Jin 9 Silver 10" has not shown much improvement this year. Manufacturers, distributors and retailers generally do not see any obvious improvement. (Note: In October, the domestic half-steel tires started from October 1st to October 10th.)
From January to October, the monthly start of tires has obviously declined compared to last year, and it is naturally difficult to boost demand for natural rubber. Under the constraints of weak demand, the problem of weak rubber fundamentals can hardly be concealed. Hujiao, such as kites in the air, fluctuates with the wind (macro surface), but the kite line is firmly in the hands of downstream demand (fundamental), no matter how high High or falling, in the medium to long term, it is still difficult to get rid of the fundamentals.
Therefore, Longzhong analyst Wang Kaifu believes that although the occurrence of the rebound of Hujiao in the latter part of the period is inevitable, the overall trend will continue to decline. That is to say, Hujiao is not yet bottomed out, and there is still the possibility of a sharp decline in the late period, 10,000. Resistance is not absolutely worry-free.
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