In the automotive industry there is an old saying: "The engine has to be the world"; for commercial vehicles, "the diesel engine has to be the world." Due to diesel's unique fuel economy, excellent reliability, and almost twice the service life compared to gasoline engines, almost all diesel engines are used in heavy and medium trucks and large passenger vehicles, and most of them are used in light trucks and light and medium-sized passenger vehicles. diesel engine. In recent years, due to rising international fuel prices and continuous improvement in the emission performance of diesel engines, the original passenger car market has been dominated by gasoline engines, and the adoption rate of diesel engines has also been increasing.
Market characteristics in 2004
The development of the diesel engine market in China is inseparable from the development of the vehicle market, especially the commercial vehicle market. In China, the medium-heavy trucks and big passenger markets have always been the main positions of diesel engines. This market accounts for about 70% of the production and sales of diesel engines. In 2004, the rapid development of medium-heavy trucks led to an ever-growing diesel engine market, especially the high growth rate of heavy-duty trucks and large passenger products, which led to the rapid development of the diesel engine market in this area. At the same time, the application of light commercial vehicles has increased further, and light diesel engines have also developed rapidly. For example, in the pickup market, the market share of diesel engine products is on a rising trend. In the light passenger market, Beiqi Futian Scenic Aierfa, Southeast Delica, and Nanjing Iveco have introduced new diesel models. Diesel light passengers are increasingly becoming The darling of the market. Among them, Nanjing Iveco launched the "Turin V" commercial vehicle that meets Euro III diesel engine and has obtained the green environmental protection standard in Beijing, and is allowed to pass through the urban area.
In addition, in the passenger car market in 2004, the original situation has always been gasoline engine dominance. With the launch of the FAW-Volkswagen diesel sedan, diesel cars have also gradually entered the stage. As an advocate and promoter of domestic diesel cars, FAW-VW has successively launched Jetta, Bora and Audi diesel cars. These diesel cars are sought after in the domestic market. Although its share of sales in cars is very low, after all, it has already made a good start, but also demonstrated for other companies. Volkswagen also set up a long-term, set up a special diesel sector in the country, and strive to repeatedly lobby in environmental protection, oil and other departments. In addition, many car manufacturers, including Dongfeng Citroen, Changan Ford, Nanjing Fiat, have also included the introduction of diesel vehicles into the plan. It can be said that the diesel car will have a broad prospect in the future.
In the MPV market, JAC also launched the first domestic version of the refinery MPV. In the SUV market, diesel-powered SUV products have also been introduced, such as Jiangling Landwind, Huatai Automobile, Foton Motors, Shanghai Wanfeng and other companies all have diesel SUV sales, and their market is remarkable.
It is due to the above reasons that sales of diesel engines in 2004 increased by as much as 21.49%, which is the second highest since 1999.
Show weaknesses and increase growth
According to the China Automobile Industry Association Automobile Production and Sales Alert, in the first half of this year, the market share of diesel engines has reached 27.59% in the automotive market in China, and 78.87% in the commercial vehicle market. However, due to the relatively stable performance of the entire automotive market during the first half of the year (sales volume increased by 9.35%, of which commercial vehicle sales increased by 7.09%), the automotive diesel engine market has experienced a low growth rate of 6.00% since 1999. Will the Diesel Engine Market Get Rid of the Weak Trend in the Second Half of the Year? Which models have more opportunities?
The author estimates that the overall trend of the diesel engine market in the second half of the year will reveal a weak pattern, which will increase by 10~12% from the first half of the year. The market share of the whole year will be flat or slightly lower than last year. Specifically, based on data, on the basis of sales volume in 2004, sales of diesel engines in 2005 are expected to increase by 9% to 12% year-on-year, which is approximately between 1.42 million and 1.46 million units.
The main reasons for the strong diesel engine market in the second half of the year are:
First, the Ministry of Communications once again stressed the need to increase efforts in overtaking work, promote the development of overstepping work in depth, and achieve new and greater results. This news is undoubtedly a big plus for the 12 to 19 tons of heavy-duty truck market that has cooled sharply in the first half of the year.
Secondly, on the truck side, due to the huge demand for light trucks, especially light trucks, due to the rural transportation and urban logistics, the expansion of the use of light trucks and the diversification of functions will lead to light trucks, especially light truck chassis (non-integrated vehicles. Converted into special vehicles; continue to strengthen; agricultural vehicles and farmers to increase income, the two will have a positive impact on the demand for the card; coal, electricity, oil and other industries are still optimistic about the growth, favorable, the card demand continued to grow. In addition, due to the excellent price/performance ratio of China's heavy trucks, especially in terms of internationally competitive prices, heavy truck exports will show strong vitality. It is expected that some truck companies will make a difference in this area in the second half of the year.
Thirdly, on the bus side, because the state has increased the construction and improvement of urban public transport since last year, it has greatly stimulated the development of urban passenger cars; at the same time, the tourist heat has increased year by year, and the demand for tourist buses has increased, while buses and coaches have increased. Among them, mainly large passenger cars. Therefore, in the second half of the year, big customers continue to sell well.
The trend of hot products in the second half
First, high-end light diesel engines and high-end high-power heavy-duty diesel engines are still selling well.
Because the truck diesel engine accounts for most of the entire diesel engine market, the trend of the truck market determines the trend of the diesel engine market. In the first half of this year, sales of high-tonnage light trucks with a total cargo weight of 4.5 to 6 tons, sales of high-tonnage trucks of 8 to 12 tons, and high-tonnage trucks of more than 19 tons were both above 23% year-on-year. Therefore, the corresponding high-end light-duty diesel engines were China Card Diesel Engines and high-end heavy-duty heavy-duty diesel engines are currently hot in the market and are expected to continue to sell well in the second half of the year.
Second, the four-cylinder with pressurized intercooling technology continues to strengthen.
Previously applied only on a six-cylinder machine -
Pressurized intercooling technology has been widely used today on four-cylinder machines. For example, Yuchai's YC4108, YC4110, YC4112, YC4113 and other models have turbocharged and intercooled diesel engine products, and these products have grown rapidly this year. . With Chaochai's 4102, QD32 series and Xichai's 4110 series diesel engines adopting pressurized intercooling technology, not only the power level has been improved, but also the sales situation has been better than in the past. It is mainly due to the rapid growth of light commercial vehicles in China in the past two years. Although the six-cylinder machine has enough power, the problem of external dimensions cannot be matched, and the four-cylinder model with supercharged technology is not only satisfied at the emission level. The requirements of Euro II and Euro III regulations, and meet the requirements of the entire vehicle in terms of dimensions, matching characteristics, etc., and at the same time, they also support the market price positioning of this type of vehicle at a good price level. These factors make the four-cylinder model replace the six-cylinder machine in a specific area.
Again, medium- and heavy-duty diesel engines with high economical efficiency, durability and reliability will continue to be optimistic.
The 2004 version of the "Automotive Industry Development Policy" technology policy focuses more on energy conservation. Since diesel engines are mainly used in medium- and heavy-duty trucks, with the rising price of diesel in the past two years and the Chinese people’s special emphasis on durability and reliability of goods, they are relative to the safety and environmental importance of passenger vehicles and light vehicles. It is said that consumers of medium- and heavy-duty trucks are paying more attention to the economy, durability and reliability of diesel engine products.